US Oil Drillers Add 19 Rigs In Largest Hike Since July 2015

Source: Hart Energy

U.S. oil companies added 19 drilling rigs during the week of Nov. 14, the biggest hike since July 2015, as shale producers cautiously redeploy cash amid OPEC's plans to curb production and after Donald J. Trump's presidential election victory.

Drillers brought the total count up to 471, which is the most since January but is still below the 564 rigs seen oneyear ago, energy services firm Baker Hughes Inc. said on Nov. 18.

Since U.S. crude prices recovered from 13-year lows to about $50/bbl, drillers have added a total of 155 oil rigs in 22 of the last 25 weeks. It is the biggest recovery in the Baker Hughes oil rig count since a global oil glut crushed the market more than two years ago. The number of oil rigs plunged from a record high of 1,609 in October 2014 to a six-year low of 316 in May as crude prices collapsed from more than $107/bbl in June 2014 to near $26/bbl in February 2016.

U.S. crude futures were trading above $45/bbl on Nov. 18, putting the contract on track to rise for the first week in four on hopes that OPEC might agree to limit production at a meeting at the end of the month.

In the longer term, Trump is expected to be an advocate for oil and gas drilling who will slash regulations and encourage new energy industry development. With oil prices expected to rise with a projected tightening of supplies and a leaner, more efficient U.S. shale industry, producers said they will follow through on plans to boost spending on new drilling.

"You're starting to see a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel," Ryan Lance, CEO of ConocoPhillips , the largest independent U.S. oil producer, told Reuters last week. "We're beginning to put capital back to work but we're being cautious."

Futures were trading near $49/bbl for calendar 2017  and near $51/bbl for calendar 2018.

"Natural gas and oil drilling activity should end the year within a few rigs of 600," James Williams, president of energy consultant WTRG Economics in Arkansas, said this week in a note.

The combined oil and gas rig count was 588 in the week ended Nov. 18, according to Baker Hughes data. Most wells produce both oil and gas.

Analysts at Cowen & Co said in a note this week that its capex tracking showed 18 E&P companies, including Occidental Petroleum Corp. and ConocoPhillips, planned to increase spending by an average of 39% in 2017 over 2016.

Cowen said this forecast 2017 increase followed an estimated 48% decline in 2016 and a 35% decline in 2015 for the 65 E&P companies it tracks.

That increased spending should boost the total number of oil and gas rigs to a forecast average of 634 in 2017 and 732 in 2018 from a projected 514 in 2016, Cowen said. That compares with an average of 978 oil and gas rigs active in 2015, according to Baker Hughes data.